mdcalc.com | HIV Needle Stick Risk Assessment Stratification Protocol (RASP)

*End Stage AIDS, Hospitalized, High Viral Load
**Suspected HIV, IV drug user, Unknown needle with high local HIV prevalence

Total Risk = Basic Risk x Volume of Inoculum Modifier
Basic Risk = 1 / (Source Modifier * Inoculum Type Modifier * Method of Transmission Modifier)

The author also cites some every day life risks to help provide risk perspective:

Risk of dying in the next 12 months
Overall risk of dying in the next 12 months (all causes)	1/3 000
Specific causes of death in the next 12 months
from a lightning strike	1/2 000 000
in an accident in your bathtub or shower	1/1 000 000
from a previously unknown allergy to a prescribed drug	1/1 000 000
by choking to death on food	1/160 000
in a bicycle accident (if you own a bicycle)	1/130 000
from toxic shock if you use tampons	1/100 000
by drowning	1/50 000
from a fire	1/50 000
as a pedestrian hit by a car or truck	1/40 000
in a work-related accident (office workers)	1/37 000
from a fall	1/20 000
in a work-related accident (overall)	1/11 000
by being murdered	1/11 000
while jogging (average 2 h/wk)	1/10 000
in a road accident	1/6 000
from any kind of accident	1/3 000
Other risks
risk of dying on your next commercial jet flight	1/5 000 000
lifetime risk of being on a bridge when it collapses	1/4 000 000
risk of dying if you get influenza	1/5 000
risk of being diagnosed with cancer in the next 12 months (overall death rate 50%)	1/3 600
risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer in the next 12 months if you are (or were) a smoker (overall death rate about 90%)	1/250
risk of having a heart attack in the next 12 months if you are over 35 years of age	1/77

Source Population	Known HIV Carrier: Acute AIDS Illness1 Asymptomatic10 Unknown HIV Status:* High-Risk Situation**100 Low-Risk Situation1000
Inoculum Type	Fresh Blood1 Other High-Risk Fluids (ex: semen)10 Dried Old Blood100 Low-Risk Secretions (ex: tears, urine, saliva)1000
Method of Transmission	Intravenous1 Deep Intramuscular10 Deep Transcutaneous with Visible Bleeding100 Superficial Transcutaneous Without Bleeding200 Mucosal Contact Only500 Intact Skin1000
Volume of Inoculum	Massive100 Measurable (>1mL)10 Moderate (Large-bore, hollow needle >22G)5 Small (Small-bore, hollow needle <22G)3 Trace (Ex: Suture needle)1
Total Risk:

HIV Needle Stick Risk Assessment Stratification Protocol (RASP)